M. Cornu, E. Billoir, H. Bergis, A. Beaufort, V. Zuliani

Microbiologie quantitative et estimation des risques (MQER), Agence Nationale de Sécurité Sanitaire (Anses), 23 avenue du Général de Gaulle, F-94706 Maisons-Alfort Cedex, France.

Abstract

Competition between background microflora and microbial pathogens raises questions about the application of predictive microbiology in situ, i.e., in non-sterile naturally contaminated foods. In this article, we present a review of the models developed in predictive microbiology to describe interactions between microflora in foods, with a special focus on two approaches: one based on the Jameson effect (simultaneous deceleration of all microbial populations) and one based on the Lotka–Volterra competition model. As an illustration of the potential of these models, we propose various modeling examples in estimation and in prediction of microbial growth curves, all related to the behavior of Listeria monocytogenes with lactic acid bacteria in three pork meat products (fresh pork meat and two types of diced bacon).